The inverse covariance matrix provides considerable insight for understanding statistical models in the multivariate setting. In particular, when the distribution over variables is assumed to be multivariate normal, the sparsity pattern in the inverse covariance matrix, commonly referred to as the precision matrix, corresponds to the adjacency matrix representation of the Gauss-Markov graph, which encodes conditional independence statements between variables. Minimax results under the spectral norm have previously been established for covariance matrices, both sparse and banded, and for sparse precision matrices. We establish minimax estimation bounds for estimating banded precision matrices under the spectral norm. Our results greatly improve upon the existing bounds; in particular, we find that the minimax rate for estimating banded precision matrices matches that of estimating banded covariance matrices. The key insight in our analysis is that we are able to obtain barely-noisy estimates of $k \times k$ subblocks of the precision matrix by inverting slightly wider blocks of the empirical covariance matrix along the diagonal. Our theoretical results are complemented by experiments demonstrating the sharpness of our bounds.

The covariance matrix adaptation evolution strategy (CMA-ES) is arguably one of the most powerful real-valued derivative-free optimization algorithms, finding many applications in machine learning. The CMA-ES is a Monte Carlo method, sampling from a sequence of multi-variate Gaussian distributions. Given the function values at the sampled points, updating and storing the covariance matrix dominates the time and space complexity in each iteration of the algorithm. We propose a numerically stable quadratic-time covariance matrix update scheme with minimal memory requirements based on maintaining triangular Cholesky factors. This requires a modification of the cumulative step-size adaption (CSA) mechanism in the CMA-ES, in which we replace the inverse of the square root of the covariance matrix by the inverse of the triangular Cholesky factor. Because the triangular Cholesky factor changes smoothly with the matrix square root, this modification does not change the behavior of the CMA-ES in terms of required objective function evaluations as verified empirically. Thus, the described algorithm can and should replace the standard CMA-ES if updating and storing the covariance matrix matters.

We consider general Gaussian latent tree models in which the observed variables are not restricted to be leaves of the tree. Extending related recent work, we give a full semi-algebraic description of the set of covariance matrices of any such model. In other words, we find polynomial constraints that characterize when a matrix is the covariance matrix of a distribution in a given latent tree model. However, leveraging these constraints to test a given such model is often complicated by the number of constraints being large and by singularities of individual polynomials, which may invalidate standard approximations to relevant probability distributions. Illustrating with the star tree, we propose a new testing methodology that circumvents singularity issues by trading off some statistical estimation efficiency and handles cases with many constraints through recent advances on Gaussian approximation for maxima of sums of high-dimensional random vectors. Our test avoids the need to maximize the possibly multimodal likelihood function of such models and is applicable to models with larger number of variables. These points are illustrated in numerical experiments.

We consider stochastic gradient descent (SGD) for least-squares regression with potentially several passes over the data. While several passes have been widely reported to perform practically better in terms of predictive performance on unseen data, the existing theoretical analysis of SGD suggests that a single pass is statistically optimal. While this is true for low-dimensional easy problems, we show that for hard problems, multiple passes lead to statistically optimal predictions while single pass does not; we also show that in these hard models, the optimal number of passes over the data increases with sample size. In order to define the notion of hardness and show that our predictive performances are optimal, we consider potentially infinite-dimensional models and notions typically associated to kernel methods, namely, the decay of eigenvalues of the covariance matrix of the features and the complexity of the optimal predictor as measured through the covariance matrix. We illustrate our results on synthetic experiments with non-linear kernel methods and on a classical benchmark with a linear model.

The central objective of empirical asset pricing is to identify firm-level signals that explain the cross-section of expected stock returns--whether through exposure to risk factors or persistent mispricing. The dominant paradigm, grounded in the assumption of self-predictability, asserts that a firm's own characteristics forecast its own returns (see, e.g., Cochrane (2011); Harvey et al. (2016)). Complementing this view is a growing literature on cross-predictability--the idea that the characteristics or returns of one asset can help forecast the returns of others (see, e.g., Lo and MacKinlay (1990); Hou (2007); Cohen and Frazzini (2008); Cohen and Lou (2012); Huang et al. (2021, 2022)). A key mechanism underpinning this phenomenon is the presence of lead-lag effects, whereby price movements or information from one firm precede and predict those of related firms. Such effects can stem from staggered information diffusion, peer influence within industries, supply chain linkages, or correlated trading by institutional investors that induces price pressure across related assets. Despite recent methodological advances in modeling cross-stock predictability, several foundational questions remain unresolved. Chief among them is how a mean-variance investor can analytically integrate multiple predictive signals when returns are interconnected across assets. Equally crucial is developing a framework that jointly captures both the relevance of individual signals and the structure of return spillovers--enhancing portfolio performance while preserving interpretability .

The problem of domain generalization concerns learning predictive models that are robust to distribution shifts when deployed in new, previously unseen environments. Existing methods typically require labeled data from multiple training environments, limiting their applicability when labeled data are scarce. In this work, we study domain generalization in an anti-causal setting, where the outcome causes the observed covariates. Under this structure, environment perturbations that affect the covariates do not propagate to the outcome, which motivates regularizing the model's sensitivity to these perturbations. Crucially, estimating these perturbation directions does not require labels, enabling us to leverage unlabeled data from multiple environments. We propose two methods that penalize the model's sensitivity to variations in the mean and covariance of the covariates across environments, respectively, and prove that these methods have worst-case optimality guarantees under certain classes of environments. Finally, we demonstrate the empirical performance of our approach on a controlled physical system and a physiological signal dataset.

We study first-order optimization algorithms for computing the barycenter of Gaussian distributions with respect to the optimal transport metric.

Typically, DNNs suffer from drastic performance degradation of previously learned tasksafterlearning newknowledge, which isawell-documented phenomenon, knownascatastrophic forgetting [8,9,10].